Commercial Permit and Closing Data is available in our Magic Professional Housing Data Application
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“1st Quarter Phoenix New Housing Market Continues To Show Improvement”
Get the details in our Phoenix Housing Market Letter
The data that we have collected and analyzed for March reflects an upsurge in new home activity in the region that supports our premise that the new home
market in metro Phoenix is in a recovery mode from the decompression of the 2007-2010 period and the bottom bumping of 2011.
The evidence of a new housing rebound continues to grow as the months of 2012 pass by. While there remain serious issues on both the supply and demand
sides of the housing equation here in this market, the stats are undeniable.
New home sales, based upon actual escrow closings, have grown month by month here in 2012, and in March were 27% above the number we counted last March.
The total new home sales year to date in 2012 are over 31% higher than the total at the end of the first calendar quarter last year, at 1,838 homes sold versus 1,401.
Most of these sales were made against a falling inventory of “spec” homes in builder inventories in the popular price ranges and locations.
Builders reported a total spec inventory of only 383 homes at the first of April, or just about a 15 day inventory overall, and this inventory was really low in the hot selling areas and price points,
as the data we report to subscribers at the subdivision level clearly shows.
This low inventory has resulted in the boost in new home building permit activity, with March permits up 60% from last March, with 1,036 permits counted as we looked at the permit records of every city and county in the region.
The 1st time we saw permits in this range was in the month the market was bumped by preparation for the “tax credit” surge that was expected.
Those with premium locations have found that business was good and soon realized the need for additional lots was on the horizon.
This fueled land prices in some pocket areas where success was touted in the press and other sources.
Land brokers and others with like minded agendas sought to pump up their market opportunity in hopes of cashing in on the shortage of lot sizes
needed for that perfect fit of new high value housing demand. We have just completed a series of lot inventory reports addressing what could
become an inventory crunch in the near term in certain areas and in some lot sizes.
We have just completed an up to date HOT SPOT MAP depicting the current new housing hot spots and those spots that we anticipate will be the next round of hot spots in the region.
The map is presented as a short Power Point which can be used in a variety of ways.
Click here for the HOT SPOT MAP
The top builders are finding success in the current market in both lower priced homes as well as higher priced move up homes by creating high value floor plans with fresh amenities and elevations.
Click here for more information on our Lot Inventory Reports
Those who performed statistical analysis with accurate and timely data laid out their road map to success with calculated step by step decisions to achieve realistic goals.... and profit margins.
Get the Authoratative 2012-2016 Metro Phoenix Housing Forecast Here
In this 40+ page presentation we examined the regional housing market by looking at 2011 home builder, community and product-level performance
from a different and more targeted set of perspectives than most analysts or forecasters are equipped to use.
We tallied builder performance by defined categories, allowing a clear look at strategies that worked, and those that didn’t.
We identified and examined each submarket's performance in the region, and hot spots within these defined areas based upon actual sales rates.
We gave special focus on the "Hot Spots" in the market place and mapped out the housing market outlook for 2012 and beyond with
detailed analysis focused on why these areas will likely prove dominate in the near term and then blossom throughout the forecast period.
Find out about the recovery phase of this housing market and what we think it can mean for you and your company.
The Monday Morning Report and other market news....
In the graphic and table below we share the new home demand segmentation in just the Southwest submarket with you.
The SW market area captured 23% of the new home closing activity in the region for 2011, and the $130,000 to $165,000 price range was the most active.
Click to enlarge
Click to enlarge
MAGIC-Pro subscribers have this tree top market intelligence available with a few clicks of their mouse, and with just a couple of additional clicks can see the floor plans
and features of the best selling plans in these communities,
all with new orders, traffic, sales and permit results updated for every subdivision every month.
To see a live on-line demo, reply to this email or call Greg direct at 480-614-0211.
SEE MORE ABOUT MAGIC PRO BELOW ↓
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Phoenix Housing Market Letter
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data in produced monthly after careful audits and system checks. We strive to produce the most timely, accurate and affordable data available.
With the addition of
Commercial Permits and Commercial Closings, Magic Professional now gives you everything you need in one simple interface.
We are excited to announce the release of our
Tucson metro Pima County Data in
our
MAGIC-Professional Software.
Magic Professional is the number one software used in the metro Phoenix housing market. More data, Enhanced features, and functions on IPad and Android tablets! Our
software allows you to search by radius, rectangle or polygon on Microsoft BING
© maps or
photography.
Easily define a geographic area and instantly create detailed housing
reports. You can view the results on the map or export the results to a PDF or Excel format. You can also export your search results to a KMZ format to view in Google Earth.
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We offer different levels to suit your needs and your budget. We can also
custom design specific data sets for your company. Our
MAGIC-Professional web application and accurate data are considered by most industry professionals to be the most authoritative housing market data
research tools in the region, and reflect our 30 year commitment to being the #1 housing research firm
in metro Phoenix.
MAGIC-Pro™ Subscribers get instant report generating technology in a user friendly and affordable application. Rated
"Best Product" by our clients.
Email Greg Burger with questions.
or call for a free demo 480.614.0211
The Annual
Report 2011
The Annual Report is a compilation of data about the metro Phoenix housing market.
This 90 page report includes a comprehensive overview of recent and past performance including Historical
combined new and resale activity, Historical metro new home closings vs permits,
Builder and subdivision rankings and detailed demand segmentation by sub market
area and price. Produced exclusively by our firm and trusted for more than a decade.
This report is available for immediate download in Adobe PDF format.
Click here to order now »
Historical Reports
These reports break down historical numbers for New and Resale Housing. Various
reports available including detailed rankings, market share identification and historical
summarization.
Click here for
full details »
We have the land data you need.....click the header above to learn more!
... Continued from above
“Our analysis of the market……”
We finished the 1st quarter 2012 generally on an upbeat, with some improving economic news, improved consumer confidence, and a glimmer of some movement to break the logjam of distressed homes that most believe overhangs the marketplace.
News from our Realtor clients continues to show a declining inventory of resale homes, which even though we believe that number to be artificial because of homes being withheld by lenders and GSE’s, is still a helpful sign.
We expect that the recent rapid decline in announced inventory will stimulate investor activity when banks put more properties on the market and continue the necessary clearing of the excess.
The rental market remains tight in most areas, and rental rates are reported to be rising as leases are renewed. This also will encourage investors still gun shy of an undulating stock market and low bond yields.
The increase in resale home prices in good neighborhoods is very positive for home builders, with a number of neighborhoods actually regaining a normal ratio of new to resale home prices.
This has turned several of these neighborhoods into “housing hot spots” and it is these areas that are largely responsible for the improving new home sales and permit numbers.
While we still hear some forecasters apparently pandering to vested interests with really aggressive forecasts for the near term, we take a more studied view and expect to see moderate and steady improvement
in the new home market overall with some serious success stories unfolding in those neighborhoods that we can identify as the places with positive market factors.
In our view, this recovery will be driven by a pretty obvious set of parameters and therefore will not be universal for several quarters. This outlook squares with our belief that there are a number of pitfalls
that remain unresolved relative to new housing both nationally and here in Phoenix and that solutions to those market challenges will be necessary before euphoria should rule.
Resolution for the thousands of households that remain in their homes and are not current in their payments must be found and applied.
The ripple effect of some of the proposed solutions could be serious and disruptive on segments of our marketplace.
The issues of credit and mortgage qualification remain overhead like a very dark cloud and could damage the “normal” move up and starter market for several years to come, especially when coupled with affordability
issues in general for the coming crop of young folks burdened with student loans and jaundiced by their vision of home ownership.
The challenge of appraisals also begs a solution and will dampen opportunity except in those hot spot neighborhoods where we have seen supply and demand re-balance and where the price gap between new and resale homes has normalized.
National politics will play a serious role in the months ahead as politically driven policies and programs will attempt to woo voters.
In the next several months the best chance of success for market participants here in metro Phoenix will be to use our analysis tools to identify those neighborhoods where the balance has already shifted from resale to new because the price gap
has either already narrowed or can be reasonably expected to narrow in the near-term. The narrowing price gap reflects a supply demand balance, which generates the opportunity for new homes and gives a green light for the savvy home builder.
These will be the housing hot spots of the next year or so. They will often be relatively small geographically, have attributes that are similar to the current housing hot spots, and not have a lot of land available for near term development activity.
Lot prices in these areas [once identified] will rise rapidly while lot values in cold spot areas will continue to languish.
Expect these hot spots to come and go relatively rapidly as the attributes develop, they are discovered, a homebuilder or two [or three or four] takes advantage, and they sell out of available lots/land.
Homebuilders will be tempted by land and lot deals that won’t fit the criteria and will need to act quickly to take those that do. It will be a land sellers market in and around the hot spots and a buyer’s market elsewhere for some time.
A sound buyer’s strategy will be key, as there are an abundance of finished, dormant, and raw-potential lots available that won’t fit the hot spot criteria yet, and relatively few that will, at least at any given time.
Our clients know that we are uniquely positioned to provide them the data that will enhance their opportunities in these market conditions. You should become one of them! Give Greg Burger a call at 480-614-0211 to get a look at what we have available to help.
Don’t miss the market opportunity of the next 2-3 years.
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Builders and developers as well as lenders and investors have used our market data
for 30 years as the basis for their due diligence for new projects, for land buys,
and for investments. If you have a need for information about Phoenix new and resale
housing, you are at the right place. If ever there was a time to have the most complete
and authoritative housing market information in your hands … it is right now!
